Hiring barely moves; the revisions change the summer story
The first official September employment reading is much softer than August’s old headline. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 29,000, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning. BLS describes both measures as little changed, a useful check on dramatic language. The prior 12 months averaged 45,000 payroll jobs a month. The unemployment rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March. A low unemployment rate and a weak month of hiring can coexist: payrolls count jobs at employers, while the separate household survey estimates whether people are employed or seeking work.
The revision is as important as the new month. July’s estimate moved from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August’s from 162,000 to 133,000. Together, those months are 60,000 jobs below earlier reports. Health care added 17,000 in September; construction’s 11,000 increase was statistically little changed. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in the month and 3.0% over a year. These are national, preliminary estimates, not Santa Clarita job counts. Future revisions can still alter the picture.
The election spin is predictable. An opposition campaign can argue that the administration’s growth story is failing; its supporters can point to a still-low 4.2% jobless rate and few broad industry declines. Both points deserve their own denominator and time period. AP notes that this is the last scheduled monthly jobs report before the November 3 midterms. It does not establish how voters will decide. Watch participation, revisions, wages and subsequent hiring, rather than treating one month as a recession diagnosis or an all-clear.
ConnorWithHonor.comConnor MacIvor · CALDRE01238257